Harsh Reality

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Part 2: Conspiracies. Or not?

Conspiracies! (Or not?), Part 2.

Koch Brothers. The Koch brothers are real people. They’re successful business men who spend money on political causes and some political candidates. They are a kind of a bogeyman to the left the way George Soros is to people on the right. Although, they’re way more centrist than Soros is. In fact, they’re basically just the D.C. establishment. They put their money behind the Bush, Clinton & Romney types. Pretty much the Chamber of Commerce issues. Open borders, endless cheap labor flowing in from the third world, endless wars everywhere, massive spending, big government…so they’re not popular with many in the GOP base. If you’ve been in any kind of discussion with a liberal over the past several years, you’ve likely been told at some point that you’re bought and paid for by the Koch brothers. These are the people they’re talking about. Someone at some time on the left told everyone that the Koch brothers were paying everyone on the right to have our opinions. I always laughed because I never got my check, and I couldn’t pick any of them out of a lineup. I’m not even sure how many of them there are and I can’t be bothered to look it up. All I know is I’ve never been paid by anyone to have an opinion and I never met another conservative who was paid by the Koch brothers, either. But liberals still throw this out there as a dismissive slur anytime they get jammed up in a debate.

The death of Justice Scalia. I’m not saying I think there’s a conspiracy here, but there certainly are some weird circumstances that can cause a reasonable person to wonder what was going on. Antonin Scalia was at a favorite hunting lodge in Shafter, TX in February, 2016 when he suddenly just died. Okay, that happens. He was an older guy. He certainly didn’t have any long-running health issues as far as most people knew. And he was out participating in an outdoor activity with some level of physical exertion. Where it gets really weird is this remote hunting lodge is a place where he went without the usual protection members of the Supreme Court normally have. U.S. Marshals, I believe. Okay, dies suddenly at a time when he didn’t have his security detail handy. That could be a coincidence. But then he was officially pronounced dead by a local official over the phone. That is, a person was declared dead by someone who never saw the person about whom they made this declaration. In defense, the local officials said they’d done it before and talked about how remote the ranch was. I guess it was a hassle to drive out there, or something. Okay, I suppose you could square that by saying he saw the body later and did an autopsy and everything came out in the end. That’s where this takes another weird turn. No autopsy was done. A sitting Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court died suddenly when his security detail was away, he was pronounced dead over the phone and his body was hustled off and immediately cremated. I know people who work in the medical field and a common frustration is the official requirement for an autopsy, even when the cause of death is obvious. I don’t know what the actual story is, but you can’t hold it against people for being suspicious of this mess.

The death of Osama bin Laden. This one is a bit like the Scalia death, only not as strange on as many levels. Bin Laden was killed. And the official story is his body was given Islamic funeral rites by a U.S. Navy Muslim Chaplain and he was buried at sea at an undisclosed location. As big a deal as administrations make when they get a terrorist bad guy, this one was over quick. Bush made a bid deal when al Zaqauwi was killed. Obama made the biggest deal of all time about bin Laden, making it sound like he was there kicking in the door and shooting him himself. I think he used “I”, “me” or “mine” about 1,000 times during his triumphant announcement. President Trump made a big deal about that Solemani guy they killed. With bin Laden, though, there were no pictures. And nobody from the Navy ship has ever come forward and mentioned anything about the burial at sea. This one isn’t as weird as the Scalia death. But people have insisted there’s some kind of conspiracy going on with it.

QAnon. This one is the most baffling and the most interesting. Essentially, the idea is that someone inside the government or someone in a position to have inside information is leaking hints about upcoming events. Like a secret whistleblower. But who is it? It’s fuzzy from the get-go. It could be one person. It could be multiple people. It could be nobody. It could be crowd-sourced and collected by some shadowy figure or group. For as many people who point out things QAnon predicted, just as many people point out there are a lot of predictions that are so vague they could mean anything. It reminds me of a horoscope. When the predictions are vague enough, people can see anything they want in them. There’s some significant news item several times a week, so it’s not hard to post something like “watch for big news on Wednesday that’ll shock the market”, or something like that. When something happens, the QAnon believers say “See! QAnon predicted this!” When something happens on Tuesday or Thursday, they say “See! It happened! He was just off by a day!” So, the chances are pretty good. What makes this interesting to me is the sociological aspect to it. Even if it’s not real, it seems to rattle the establishment left. They’ve gone to great lengths to stomp out any online talk of QAnon as misinformation or election interference or whatever they’re banning users for this week. And, I think that’s actually lending it credibility. And who knows? Maybe it is real. But, either way, Trump supporters have picked up on the left’s annoyance and have embraced it. I imagine a fair amount of those are just trolling the left with it. But who knows? As I’ve asked people about it, I get a difference answer from everyone about what it is. It seems to be everything and nothing.

George Soros. Here we are back to what started this discussion. George Soros is a billionaire who’s using his money to influence policy and elections in Western nations. He puts big money into social justice organizations and he’s been spending big on local elections over the past several years. Races for things like county prosecutor or district attorney have drawn record donations from George Soros all over America. Which seemed very strange until rioting broke out in many of these cities this year and the Soros-backed DAs took pretty much the same approach of refusing to prosecute the rioters, or quickly letting them out of jail without bond and aggressively prosecuting innocent people caught up in the rioting. People like little old ladies on their way to doctor appointments or guys on their way home from work who refuse to stop for violent mobs blockading the highway. Or the McCloskeys in St. Louis. Or any of a number of other cases. When you see the results of what he’s been doing, it’s very clever and has had dramatic results. This is what Newt Gingrich was talking about when he was told by Fox News he would not be allowed to talk about George Soros. And his question was correct. “Why not? He’s the one paying for it!” referring to the riots. He’s right. And it’s not a conspiracy. But that’s the way it’s being treated by the left and the political establishment. Nobody is allowed to talk about it. And that’s what I meant when I said conspiracies are useful to bad people, because they can hide actual things they are doing among them and dismiss anyone who brings it up as being crazy. Soros and Gingrich is a perfect example. Soros’ campaign contributions to candidates in cities now being destroyed is not a myth. It’s not a rumor. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s actual numbers on campaign finance forms filed by the candidates’ committees. And there’s a pattern. Everywhere Soros gets someone elected, the wheels fall off civilization in those areas. And all for the same reason.

Gingrich is correct. It’s something that has to be addressed. American cities are burning, largely by a crowd of people that looks to be a lot the same individuals roaming from city to city. They're getting around, paying their bills and being supplied with helmets, gas masks, food, lodging and Molotov cocktails from some funding source. There seems to be an endless supply of those ridiculous black skinny jeans, too. The chaos in cities across the U.S. can't continue. Soros and others funding the breakdown of civilization is not a conspiracy and deserves a conversation and a closer look.

Monday, September 21, 2020

Part 1: Conspiracies. Or not? Epstein; New World Order; Soros; PizzaGate; QAnon & more!

In a segment on last week's episode of the Harsh Reality podcast I talked about the strange incident on Fox News where former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, discussing the rioting, violence, looting and physical attacks on police and ordinary Americans, brought up billionaire George Soros. Gingrich noted that the problem in every city overcome by leftist violence was run by Democrats, many or all of whom were elected with the help of enormous campaign contributions from Soros. What made the segment weird is it was an ordinary cable news interview segment with a mixed bunch of guests, including the centerpiece - a former Speaker of the House - who was rudely, and very awkwardly, told he was prohibited from speaking about George Soros. [awkward silence]

I'll circle back around to the Gingrich incident on Fox later, but the weird silence by everyone else immediately before they all jumped int to interrupt Gingrich and tell him he is not allowed to talk about Soros made me think it was an editorial decision more than a conspiracy to hide George Soros.

If you haven't noticed, I don't ever bring up Soros in my work commentating on current events. Although, he is without a doubt a significant player in events in the United States and elsewhere in Western Europe. The problem is he used to be more in the shadows, and a certain segment of the population loves conspiracy theories. They're all across the political spectrum, but there's a fair amount among American conservatives, who, I honestly believe get a little kooky with trying to connect all the dots and convince everyone there's some deep, secret thing that's hidden from view, but they've figured it out. Usually, when they tell me about secret conspiracies and stuff, I point out that it's not a secret if you're telling about it now.

At the end of the day, I am firmly in the Occam's Razor camp. It's the philosophical theory that the simplest explanation for any given situation is usually the correct one. Once you begin adding steps, things become exponentially more complicated and the chance of failure increases exponentially, making the end result more unlikely. Here's an example off the top of my head: A guy walks into your office from outside and he's wet and shaking off a wet newspaper he had over his head. You can reasonably assume it was raining outside, and he ran from his car into the building holding the newspaper over his head. Your conspiracy minded coworker might tell you that guy's lazy and there was a leaking water pipe in the building last week that guy was told to fix. But, since he's lazy, he didn't fix it and it's now leaking water and it got all over him. So, since he knows the guys at the loading dock, they probably let him go our the loading dock and run around to the front of the office where he could walk into the building all wet in front of everybody, so they'd think it was raining instead of knowing he didn't do his job and fix that broken pipe. The Occam's Razor adherent would say "It's probably just raining out."

You see how the conspiracy theorist's story inevitably turns into a Rube Goldberg device to explain simple things? Each step in the device is just another chance for the whole thing not to work. And there are always holes in the story that cause the conspiracy theory to not make sense. Predictably, the conspiracy theorist uses these holes in the story to claim that's actually evidence of the conspiracy, and uses that to fill in wild accusations that would fit nicely into the secret plans.

The biggest problem I have with conspiracy theories getting out of control is that the left uses this kookiness to hide actual bad behavior that they really don't want to talk about. They do this by labeling discussion about liberal positions as a conspiracy theory and then threatening to paint the one raising the issue as a nutcase not worthy of discussion like all those other crazies spouting wacky conspiracy talk. You see how that works? We all know liberals can't be honest about anything. They have to constantly shift talk away from their actual policies and results. Because they lose on that 100% of the time. No exceptions. So they talk about their feelings. Or they accuse you of being a bigot or a racist or a homophobe to turn the discussion into whether or not you are whatever they're throwing at you, instead of the original topic. Or they shift the goalposts to something they'd rather talk about ("Oh, yeah? Well why don't we talk about how George W. Bush invaded Iraq?!?!?" Or randomly bring up Sarah Palin and call her names. They're shameless.)

Talking with a liberal is basically just like talking to a physically larger version of a hyper-emotional preteen girl. Their minds are frantic, their thoughts are scattered, they'd rather die than admit to having ever been wrong about anything, they're completely ruled by their emotions and they consider themselves a better human being than anyone who happens to hold a different opinion. And they're mean!

So labeling something a conspiracy theory is just another tool in their kit to get out of talking about their side's failed policies or bad behavior. I'm going to briefly talk about some topics that people say are conspiracies. This is just a fun, quickie list of topics that I typically avoid talking about because they get to close to a conspiracy, and those are like catnip for some people. It drives them wild! And they then start sending me videos to watch (please don't send me videos) that supposedly prove the conspiracy.

So here's a few from over the past few years, along with my commentary:

New World Order. I'm not sure who coined this phrase, but I think it was first used in a notable sense by former President George H. W. Bush during his inauguration. Big things were happening in the world in 1989. It got more dramatic later in the year. That's the year I graduated from college and I remember thinking times were weird. Bush wasn't a popular President, even from the get-go. He wasn't popular in the 1970s when he was the Republican establishment's choice for president instead of the populist, rugged individualist from middle America Ronald Reagan. Reagan won the GOP nomination in 1980, but was assured by GOP establishment types he would be destroyed by incumbent President Jimmy Carter if he didn't have a "serious" Republican on the ticket. Reagan made the biggest mistake of his presidency by allowing the establishment to put George Bush on the ticket as his running mate. Bush was a snobby Yale man, lifetime Washington insider, toast of the political class, in favor of high taxes, American military being entangled in wars everywhere, big government, and a permanent political elite who ruled like kings over the simpleton hillbillies in flyover country. In this regard, they were (and still are) much closer to Democrats than their own base. They were pretty mad about voters selecting Reagan over their demands, but not as mad as they were in 2016. Anyway, Bush mostly laid low during the Reagan years. In that regard, he was probably a pretty good VP. But, when it was time to run for President himself, he was basically like the gangly metrosexual from the country club who had no idea what ordinary Americans do all day. Next to Reagan, Bush was a wimp. Democrats seized on this wimp meme and used it to great effect. And it worked. Because Bush was a country club liberal who had no idea what to do to impress the "little people". So, his team spent much of the campaign having Bush wear flannel shirts, ride on tractors and eat pork rinds. (<---I am not making this up. Pork rinds. Look it up.) Bush was always most comfortable talking about and hobnobbing with the international political elites. Stuff ordinary Americans don't know about and don't care. When Bush uttered the phrase "New World Order", it caused quite a reaction. A lot of Americans immediately voiced their concerns. It fed into the previous chattering about the Council on Foreign Relations and the Bilderberg meetings. These are both real things for very elite people. The chattering came from the idea that these elite people were cooking up something. World domination, maybe. People from the Reagan wing of the party, such as Pat Buchanan, pointed at his statement and claimed they were right all along. Globalism was not yet in the ordinary lexicon, but a lot of people had a bad feeling. As it turns out, what Bush was describing was what we now know as globalism. The liberal disease where nations surrender their sovereignty to be ruled by a small, international ruling class and a handful of corporations. Taxes skyrocket, immigrants start pouring over borders, corporations pull out their operations and have everything made in 3rd world countries for pennies to get profits to soar, nations invade nations all over the planet at the behest of these multimillionaire rulers in order to overthrow national leaders who won't play ball with the international elites and just want to be left alone. After 30 years, we see how that all worked out. And people in nations everywhere are beginning to push back. When people like Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot raised the red flag over all the sudden talk about a New World Order, they were labeled conspiracy theorists. I'd label this one more of an "international plan" than a conspiracy. There clearly was a lot of planning going on behind the scenes with the Bushes and elites around the world. But they mostly did what they were doing openly. They just lied about how great it would be. We all know American life and culture is worse by every measure now than it was when George Bush uttered those words publicly in 1989, except for the price of TVs and other crap at Walmart. But it wasn't a conspiracy. The globalists who did these things just enriched and empowered themselves and lied about how great it was going to be for everyone. That's all.

Jeffrey Epstein. The Epstein thing is a riddle inside a puzzle. He's a real guy. A billionaire who liked living a billionaire lifestyle. But there were rumors about his sexual habits involving underage girls. The rumors were so rampant that it rose to the level of common knowledge, even to people who didn't follow billionaire lifestyles. It was sort of like the Harvey Weinstein situation. I don't follow Hollywood or celebrities at all. I couldn't tell you any of the hottest actors or actresses from any time over the past three decades. I don't care. But I'd heard of Harvey Weinstein and I knew he was someone you wouldn't leave a woman you cared about alone with him. I don't know where I heard that or why. It was just common knowledge and one of the few things I knew about Hollywood. Same with Jeff Epstein. Since the 1990s I've heard of Epstein's planes full of young girls and all the celebrities and politicians and other VIPs who flew to his private island to do who-knows-what to who-knows-who. I knew Bill Clinton was involved and I knew Epstein was a Clinton mega donor. To be honest, I dismissed a lot of the Epstein talk as opposition mud-slinging. I figured if it was too raunchy, a former President and some royal family types wouldn't be hanging out with him. And I figured Clinton was a good canary in the coal mine, since he has a notorious appetite for raunch. I'm not judging, but I figured if Bill Clinton were to say "Okay, woah! We don't need to cross that bridge, Jeff!" then we'd know it was definitely something that might be illegal. Make sense? And then there was some news back in the early 2000s about Epstein getting in some trouble here in Florida. It was what everyone expected, and he did the kind of jail time celebrities always do, which is little or none. Then that lady at the Miami Herald started going through the old court paperwork and news reports and stuff and wrote up a story about it in 2018 with the angle that he got off too light. That started the ball rolling in the 'Me, too' era and things got going again. So Epstein gets arrested and goes to jail. He tried or threatened to kill himself, and then was found dead in his cell. I've got to say this is a tough one. My Occam's Razor intuition says the most rational explanation here is someone killed him. Which is the same thing the conspiracy crowd is saying. So this is a unique situation. He was locked in a protective custody cell where he had 1.) A cellmate; 2.) Frequent, scheduled guard checks, and; 3.) No clothing, sheets or other items available for him to hurt himself. He had none of those three. One failure is certainly possible. Two of the three is bad, but...it's government. All three? But, thankfully there was a sophisticated system of cameras in place, as one would expect in a jail in New York City. So, what did the cameras show? Officials tell us the cameras - there were two pointing at Epstein's cell door - were both malfunctioning during the time he died. This is enough remarkable coincidences that a reasonable person could say, it just is what it looks like. A cardinal rule of mine when I was practicing law was that if was fine to tell a jury "I can explain that". All of us have been in situations where something looked different than it was. If you have to tell a just "I can explain that" a second time, though, it starts looking bad. If you have to pull out that excuse a third time, you look like a liar. I actually did very well with this against my opponents in court for nearly two decades. The point is too many coincidences eventually point to the reality that they weren't coincidences at all. I also understand the Bureau of Prisons Warden at the facility where Epstein died is someone who had no discernible record of public life whatsoever prior to coming into the high-ranking position of Warden of a major federal facility. No H.S. pictures, no Rotary Club luncheons, no softball league stats, no letters to the editor. Nothing. And, since he was reassigned as a result of the Epstein death, the BOP claims his current assignment is a personnel issue and therefor protected under federal employment laws. The Warden of the facility was a ghost, and has vanished back into the mists. Add to the situation that Epstein got an attorney visit a couple days before his death and moved his entire estate into a trust. Everything. So, Epstein's billions of dollars vanished into the impenetrable world of trusts hours before he died. It's all very weird for sure, and I wish I could say people are crazy for questioning the official story. This is one where there are so many unlikely things that the official story actually sounds like a wild conspiracy theory. So, I have no idea what the hell's going on there.

Pizzagate. This is a story of a pedophile ring of important people in Washington, D.C. To start out, you need to know that "CP" and words with those letters in that order are shorthand for child pornography. According to law enforcement friends who know about these things, a common euphemism is "cheese pizza". So, among people who produce, trade and consume child pornography, they don't call it that. They may refer to cheese pizza in their emails or online communication. So, that part is a real thing. And it makes sense, I suppose . Plausible deniability if you're caught, although if everyone knows that cheese pizza means child porn, it seems there's not much cover. Although I didn't know that, and you probably didn't either. So, who knows? But there were some other weird coincidences surrounding a pizza joint in D.C. called 'Comet Ping Pong' or referred to as 'Comet Pizza'. You see where this is going? The thing about this one, is it kinda seems to me like trolling. That is, intentionally poking fun at people to make them outraged. All the major players in Pizzagate are prominent Democrats and their hangers-on. When I say trolling, I mean there are a lot of in-your-face weird child things that are so over the top that it seems like they're trying to get conspiracy theorists all riled up. For instance, another related pizza joint has a logo that looks pretty much identical to a known pedophile symbol. Also, one or more of the people allegedly in this pedophile ring actually do have artwork collections of some pretty sick, child-related art. I thought about linking to some of what's hanging on their walls, but I just can't. Also, musicians who performed at these places had some weird child-related promo materials and there were a lot of emails with obvious code language, but it's not clear what they are talking about. Having worked as a prosecutor and a criminal defense attorney, I've seen discovery in criminal matters where people use code language. Some of the emails released by Wikileaks in this matter were very clearly coded language."$60,000 worth of hotdogs being flown in special from Chicago for the hotdog party"? There's lots of weird things like this. But who even knows what they're talking about? But you can't put your own interpretation on something and presume that's what it is. If I had to guess, I'd say this is one giant troll by these Democrats involved with all this. I'll tell you what doesn't help, though, is all the leftist "fact-checking" from the New York Times, that ridiculous [poop]-show snopes, and every other leftist outlet. In fact, channels discussing the matter on certain websites have been shut down and google seems to be suppressing any mention of it, except the leftist websites calling it a hoax, discredited, etc. Honestly, the fact nobody is allowed to speak about it and the liberal tech giants suppress and ban discussion is more evidence there's something to all the rumors, gossip and conspiracy talk than all the rumors, gossip and conspiracy talk. Try it yourself. Google it. You'll find page after page of nothing but angry denunciations and full-throated defense by the NY Times, Washington Post and the rest of the swamp. Look at the wikipedia page. It should also be the wikipedia page for the words "debunked" and "hoax". I honestly believe it's a giant troll by the people accused of being pedophiles. But maybe their trolling got out of hand and people took it seriously? Who even knows? But all these powerful media outlets and Google aren't rushing to the defense of any other small-time restaurants that someone starts rumors about. Including ones that make national news, like that pizza shop in Indiana that leftists were all threatening to burn down back in 2014. Anyway, if there was any way for you to find any information about Pizzagate, you could judge for yourself. The tech giants and media have decided you're not allowed to ask about it, though.

That's enough for this blog entry. I'll cover some more conspiracies in my next entry, and I'll talk about it on the podcast this weekend.

Stay tuned for Part 2!

Monday, September 14, 2020

Election analysis, less than two months out

There's no question this is the most chaotic election cycle in any of our lifetimes. The last time there was this much chaos and uncertainty was during the 1860 election where the nation was hopelessly divided. No matter who won that election, things were so divided that neither side would accept an electoral defeat.

Abolitionists in the North were leading the brand new Republican Party and nibbling around the edges of severely limiting slavery, with the ultimate goal of ending the practice nationwide. Democrats, particularly in the South, were playing defense, trying to fend off the constant threats to the institution, such as making sure a slave state was admitted for every new free state that came into the union or engaging in pitched political battles or even armed conflicts within the territories to get it to come in as a slave or free state. If you haven't read about the fierce battles in Missouri or "Bleeding Kansas", you should read up on it. It's fascinating, and now seems eerily prescient, especially in light of the events we see unfolding on our TVs every day in 2020.

Full disclosure, I went on record back in 2012 predicting Barack Obama would lose that general election and got it completely wrong. Back when I was toying with a YouTube channel. My analysis was sound, my reasons were good...but I was wrong about the outcome. There was just no getting around how remarkably terrible a candidate Mitt Romney was, nor how energized the black community remained to supporting Obama. So you can take my analysis with a grain of salt. I've learned a lot since then, though.

Polls. The public ones are worse than useless. If you listened to my interview with the 'Anonymous Political Insider' on the Harsh Reality podcast (available here), you know that nobody who makes a living in politics pays attention to the public polls, except for their value in regard to fundraising or publicly motivating your base. So "Hey! Look how great we're doing in the polls! Get on the winning team and help us to victory!" or berating the polls as fake news by saying "We all know these polls are bogus! Get out there and vote and show them they're wrong!" The polls you see on your favorite cable show are meant for entertainment purposes and not taken seriously by professionals. As we saw in 2016 when every poll showed Hillary with absurd double-digit leads, the big polls are no reflection of what's actually happening with the electorate. They're a reflection of the opinion of the pollsters...who all HATE President Trump.

If you want to know what's actually going on, watch the campaigns. They'll tell you what the real polls are doing. When polls say Biden is winning in a landslide in some battleground state, but the Trump campaign is ignoring it and Biden is spending a lot of money...that's a great indictor that the professionals in the campaigns know Trump is leading and Biden is playing catch-up. It's very often the exact opposite of whatever the nightly news is reporting.

As of now, Donald Trump and republicans are on offense everywhere across America. You know this because they are attacking at every opportunity and all the energy is with conservatives. Liberals are burning things down, but business owners and hardworking Americans are becoming more entrenched every day in their support of the President. 

Biden, who's supposedly winning in a blowout, is on defense everywhere. He's got Bloomberg spending $100M to help him win just in Florida. A state in which major media tells us Biden has a major lead. He wouldn't be spending major money like that in a state he was already winning.

Have you noticed things that make you think it's impossible Democrats can win the White House this year? Anecdotal observations are the worst kind of indicators. But they were right on the money in 2016 and seem to be signaling the same thing in 2020. I hear from people all the time that they don't see anyone supporting For Biden or Democrats and a gazillion signs, or whatever, supporting President Trump. The problem is there are a bunch of people on the other side who have nice idea who on earth is voting for Donald Trump because everyone they know and see around them all hate the guy. But there's something to the Trump phenomenon. All the yard signs, Trump flags, boat parades, etc. If you've traveled across America, you've no do doubt noticed the vast majority of American real estate dominated by signs of support for Donald Trump. There's a joke floating around on social media on this very topic. It has to to do with some person counting yard signs on a trip and concluding Joe Biden is losing to both Trump and 'Yard Sale' (or "sweet corn" or whatever). In 2016 the lovely and gracious Mrs. Harshey did a similar survey when we rode our motorcycle through the American midwest and noted a 50-1 preference for Mr. Trump. She couldn't imagine any possible way Hillary Clinton could win the presidency. But anecdotal observations are tricky. It follows the same basic pattern as 2016, though. The wealthy urban areas will vote for Democrats and the rest of America will vote for President Trump. The big difference this time is a lot of "nice white people" in urban areas and a larger percentage of blacks will pull the lever for Donald Trump.

So, what is my official prediction (subject to change)? President Trump wins reelection in a similar manner as 2016. He'll win big in the Electoral College, but Democrats will cheat with fake ballots, multiple voting, illegal alien voting, etc. Democrats will win the popular vote by some ridiculous margin. It will be enough for them to claim an overwhelming popular vote win and denounce the Electoral College as a sham and an obstruction to the real presidential victor.

This is where the real fun begins. What happens after Trump's electoral victory?

Now we're back to 1860.

Monday, September 7, 2020

The Democratic Party is Imploding Before Our Eyes

As we move inside the 60 day mark until the 2020 general election, there are some things firming up that the parties are going to be stuck with. I say this because 8 weeks is a lot of time for some event to happen. And the Democrats and their henchmen in major media have already started their attempts at an 'October Surprise'. They tried that several times in 2016, to no avail. Their nuclear weapon, of course, was the decades-old secret recording of Mr. Trump joking around in private using boorish locker room talk about how women treat celebrities different than regular guys. Democrats and the media had their narrative and outrage machine ready to roll, just like all their previous attempts at sinking trump with a manufactured scandal and faux outrage. To this day they remain in stunned disbelief that it bounced right off him.

The reason it didn't make any difference is because the GOP base - Trump's voters - quit caring what major media had to say long before that. Like every other attack, it was dishonest. However rude his comments about generic women, they amounted to less than nothing in comparison to the Clinton campaign and major media's treatment of specific women in Bill Clinton's trail of victims from Arkansas into the White House and beyond. Seriously, Clinton campaign staffer George Stephanopolous can be heard on a recorded phone call saying far worse to a reporter, threatening her to keep her mouth shut and promising to destroy her future if she keeps digging into all the sexual allegations against Bill Clinton. At one point in the call (from the documentary 'The War Room' about Clinton's 1992 campaign) George threatens to make up a list of names the reporter has had illicit sex with just as a smear. George is now, of course, a celebrated member of the fake news media at ABC News and treated as a serious journalist by others in major media who pretend to be journalists themselves. So the media's clutching their pearls and rushing to their fainting couches over bawdy talk about nobody in particular, in private, between some guys, secretly recorded, over a decade before didn't come across as authentic outrage. Everyone knew the media and Hillary were just pretending to be shocked and outraged. The Clintons' treatment of women, and that of their fawning media and their campaigns, pretty much sunk that issue as one the media or Clintons could ever leverage against anyone.

But it's an example of how the Democrats and their media roll. Expect tawdry stories and made-up scandals every week or so during the home stretch. Late last week The Atlantic came out with a article saying President Trump hates the military and service members, calling dead U.S. troops buried in national cemeteries in Europe "losers" and "suckers", and that the President demanded disabled veterans be taken away from him because he's disgusted by them and didn't want them in photos or video with him. As of this writing the reporter can only cite "anonymous sources", but President Trump has angrily denied it, pretty much everyone who was there when he allegedly made the statements has strongly denied the President has ever said anything like that, nor would he. John Bolton wrote about the incident (the weather cancellation of plans to attend an event at the ceremony) in his book and denied ever hearing anything of the sort. And several people, including Bolton, said it would be outrageous for anyone to call Marine Corps war dead "losers", especially in the presence of General Mattis and General Kelly. So, basically, it was a lie. Nobody believed the lie who didn't already hate the President and want it to be true.

As every other attack launched at him by the lying media, it completely failed. But you can be sure there are many more lies they're cooking up to try to get something to stick. 

The strange thing is that it never seems to occur to the left to come up with some policy ideas that the American people might like. And then try to go sell those ideas in stump speeches and debates. Democrats haven't done anything like that in years. Their pitching Obamacare back in 2008 was the last time Democrats had an actual policy to talk about. They rammed it through in 2010 and then were blown out in the November elections that year. Obama really didn't have to run in 2012 because Mitt Romney was such a horrible opponent. Hillary's entire campaign was built around the idea that it was "her turn" and that she has a vagina. No policy discussion or ideas whatsoever. Trump's four years as President have seen nothing but silly attempts to make up a scandal, only to fall flat on their faces over and over. They tried the Russian collusion hoax, Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen, the impeachment fiasco, the economic shutdowns, the pandemic, BLM/antifa riots and now the Trump-hates-the-military lie. Impeachment is actually fascinating, because Democrats spent every ounce of energy from 2016 until this spring focused on figuring out a way to impeach President Trump. It was a spectacular failure, of course, but it seemed like they would at least have it as an issue to talk about. Not one of them mention it, though. They're completely avoiding the topic altogether.

So, they don't really have anything to talk about. They're floundering around, just spitting insults at President Trump and making generic speeches. "We need to come together! This is an important time and we'll fix the problems that my opponent caused!" 🙄 They talk like they raided a H.S. library and cribbed all the student council campaign speeches.

The virtual Democratic National Convention was a snapshot of their entire party right now. It was amateurish and content-free, insofar as policy goes. It looks like it was put on by 7th graders. And there were likely as many people tuning in to laugh at them as enjoy the event.

There must be 1000 of these screenshots out there. Democrats have had a style-over-substance problem for 35 years where they just make up obvious lies and pretend it’s true/hope it comes true. It’s like they decided running Nixon out of office worked pretty good, so they’re going with nothing but demonizing the other side with outrageous accusations that are obviously not true and rely on the media to help them squeak out a win. It’s all incredibly short-term thinking and I think they’ve finally run their party into the ground. 2016 showed how people were sidestepping the lies of MSM. The left’s shameful attempts to silence disagreement on social media is a last desperate grasping to keep things going just one more election. These embarrassing numbers and hilarious mocking are evidence their politics-by-outrage sham is imploding. It’s surprising it went on this long. Shows how powerful the MSM used to be.

It shows how fake their show is. These things we’re seeing are the embarrassment of them tryin to continue to pretend there’s broad support or any excitement for them. I’d say their policies, but they don’t have any, apart from little niche things to get some grievance group or another on board. Obamacare was the last policy they had to champion. 10-12 years ago! Since then it’s been 1.) Defend the black president from "racists"; 2.) Defend the female presidential candidate from "sexists", and; 3.) Do the opposite of whatever Orange Man says. These aren’t policies. There's nothing to vote for. Democrats have literally gone over a decade without giving anyone any motivation to vote FOR them. Just against the bad people on the other side. That’s not sustainable. I think we’re seeing it all crash in here.

This picture is on a story over at Breitbart. It’s unreal the difference between Democrats between this photo and the blue-hair crossdressers and America-hating communists throwing confetti in a fake celebration of a dem candidate. The angry buttheads rioting outside the 1968 convention are the establishment and their grandchildren are wearing dresses, burning American flags and calling for communism. It’s surreal.

I'll leave you with the grande finale of the Democrats' presidential nomination:

Friday, September 4, 2020

Expect antifa to kill more Trump supporters

Things are getting worse.

Last Saturday night, self-described "100% antifa" rioter Michael Reinoehl was on the streets Portland during their nightly rioting, burning and looting. In a video, another rioter can be heard yelling (paraphrased) "Hey! We got one! This one here is a Trump guy!" Reinoehl walked up to Jay Danielson, who was wearing a "Patriot Prayer" hat, and shot him dead with a handgun, then ran away.

Reinoehl had been arrested twice just in the past few months. Once driving over 100mph and found to be drunk and in possession of drugs. The antifa-friendly prosecutor dismissed his charges.

Then on July 5th, Reinoehl was arrested near the federal courthouse in Portland where rioters were throwing Molotov cocktails and shooting fireworks in an attempt to breach and burn down the courthouse. In addition to fighting police, once Reinoehl was wrestled to the ground, he was found to have a loaded handgun a large hunting knife. He was released and charges were dismissed again.

In a statement, Democrat Joe Biden excused one of his street fighters killing a Trump supporter by blaming the President and claiming Trump supporters are provoking antifa. Although there was no indication anywhere Danielson had done or even said anything to anyone, Biden claimed Trump supporters are "spoiling for a fight". Major media dismissed Danielson's execution as "a man died in a clash between Trump supporters and peaceful protesters". As far as anyone can tell, the "clash" was simply Danielson wearing a Patriot Prayer hat which caused rioters to single them out for attack.

After going on the run, Reinoehl gave an interview to Vice where he claimed he was the real victim because he was now "being hunted". He claimed he had no choice but to kill Danielson because he claimed Danielson was likely going to kill some people of color. He didn't elaborate and there's nothing in the video of the encounter, so we can presume his claim was just a self-serving lie. The fact he was hiding from police and apparently trying to get some of the same support pouring out for Kyle Rittenhouse who shot three antifa attackers in Kenosha, WI as they chased him, shot at him, beat him on the ground, tried to wrestle away his rifle and charged at him with a gun.

On Thursday, Reinoehl was killed in what appears to have been a shoot-out with federal officers from the U.S. Marshals' Fugitive Task Force near Seattle, WA. Police confirmed Reinoehl pulled a gun when approached by officers and a neighbor reported hearing 30-40 shots fired.

The antifa killing Danielson last weekend and the subsequent public celebrations by BLM & antifa rioters was just the beginning.

Now that the door to executing Trump supporters has been opened, there’s going to be more. We know this from the silence, excusal or celebration by everyone on the left. They’ve previously walked right up to the edge, with getting in people’s faces at restaurants and beating up people here and there. The attacks on elderly people and federal officeholders who attended the President's nomination acceptance speech at the White House is another example of the escalation. The gate’s now open on killing Trump supporters for no other reason than they do not support the left's communist revolution. In addition, they’re emboldened by local officials' weaponization of the legal system against victims of the communist mobs. Besides Democrat prosecutors in places like Seattle, Portland, St. Louis and Minneapolis refusing to press charges against antifa and BLM rioters for acts of violence and destruction, they are helping the rioters by fully prosecuting anyone resisting the communist mobs. While rioters know they have the protection of local officials when they burn, loot, destroy or even kill, they also know anyone who resists them will be arrested, jailed and prosecuted. Kyle Rittenhouse in Kenosha, the McCloskeys in St. Louis and several ordinary people who refused to stop for antifa road blockades are examples of the left's use of their control over the legal system in certain places to back up rioters. In addition, mob organizers know the national media will portray attacking rioters as peaceful protesters and victims, no matter what they do.

We can expect antifa and BLM to kill more, because local authorities excuse it, the media ignores or deflects it, social media will ban anything or anyone critical of the mobs and Democrats justify it.

The Rule of Law has not only collapsed, it is being weaponized against ordinary Americans who just want to go about their daily lives and not be assaulted, killed or have their homes or businesses looted and burned.

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

As We've Transformed to Digital Socialization, Leftists Control Every Narrative

 In a recent social media post a user was talking about watching the 1980s TV action show 'Air Wolf' with his family. He mentioned how, besides the entertainment value of the show itself, it was also a time capsule looking back at what life was like.

I've noticed this phenomenon, and maybe you have, too. I don't watch much TV. In fact, we don't have cable and we're too far from broadcast TV towers to pick up over-the-air television channels. So, like a lot of people, we basically have some subscription services. I rarely watch at all, my wife has certain series she enjoys. But that's pretty much it.

Watching TV shows from even the 1990s, like 'Seinfeld' is as fascinating for the cultural reminders as it is for the story itself. For instance, how many of the personal drama hilarity in Seinfeld plots could've been solved if they had cell phones? George having everyone sit by the phone so they could answer it "Vandalay Industries?" or any of the "where were you?!?" bits wouldn't work at all nowadays. And much of the amusing banter or disagreements among friends that were a staple of TVs and movies is solved now with a quick Google search on your smartphone or check-in with Alexa.

Social media has also completely transformed how people socialized. Most of us have "friends" we talk to online who we've never actually met. Socializing is a thing that, throughout the entirety of human history until the past decade, was something people had to do in person. If you hung out somewhere and acted like a jerk, you'd be corrected, or at least avoided. If you were insufferable enough, you might get thrown out of a place. Maybe punched, depending on what you said and to whom you said it. As the guy with the Air Wolf box set mentioned, there was nobody to "moderate" and pick - in advance - who the winners and losers were going to be like there is now on social media. Twitter and the other tech giants are constantly purging entire classes of users for wrongthink, deleting speech, monitoring speech and deciding if the lynch mob demanding a user be canceled will get their wish. In the time before, the bartender, party host or whomever wasn't in charge of policing what people say. People were responsible for themselves, and if enough people thought a guy was a jerk they just avoided him. Being bad for business, someone making an ass of himself to enough people usually got shown the door or not invited back. But that was purely practical, not being the 'moral police'.

We've fundamentally transformed how humans interact with each other. We've created a permanent baby class. When my kids were little, we always encouraged them to face disappointment and difficulty head-on, make the best decision on handling it and drive on. This was necessary, we explained, because there wouldn't always be a parent or teacher to correct things for you. The tech giants have effectively stepped in as worldwide parents or teachers. Their favored children run to them and tattle every time they're offended at something one of the less-favored children said and demand they be punished.

This bizarre virtual, perpetual parenting has created an unnatural, permanent immaturity in our culture. There's not only a jostling among the "children" to be more favored with the big tech "parents", but a never-ending demand for more punishment of the less favored "children". It has stunted the emotional growth of an entire generation. Permanent infantilization on a mass scale.

Which is one reason everyone feels like everything has gone crazy. Because our speech, our relationships, the things we enjoy...it's all being managed by "Super Parents".

As I write this, there is total confusion surrounding the decision by Big10 officials about canceling the 2020 college football season. Some member schools have been very direct in insisting the season will not be canceled. Media is reporting the vote has already happened and the schools have definitely canceled it. There is pushback, confusion and accusations of false reporting. A friend noted the normally rock-steady people he knows involved in leadership seem to be unusually confused. This is because people in leadership in every area of America doesn’t realize that social media has been 98% purged of those who disagree with the major media narrative.

They don't understand that social media is not real!

They see CBS-CNN-NBC-NYT-WaPo-ABC-MSNBC and virtually all of social media screaming the exact, same thing. They can’t seem to grasp that that’s on purpose! In 2015-16 social media was the counterbalance against major media. After Donald Trump's election the tech giants set out to cancel points of view differing from the approved narrative. This total confusion is the result.

Major media effectively controls all of social media. Whatever the leftist narrative on any given topic is deemed "TRUE", and different opinions are quashed as "fake news" and scrubbed as dangerous misinformation. People in leadership positions see a single, amplified point of view, act on what they believe to be a near-unanimous consensus, and then are stunned at the resulting pushback. This disconnect is the source of the massive confusion in so many institutions today and the frustration of so much of the American people.

To the vast majority of Americans, rioters are not heroes. Police are not universally despised. America and it's founding is not hated. Most people are not cowering in fear of the coronavirus. These are all major media narratives created and amplified to push political agendas. The people pushing these narratives all vote the same way and live in a bubble. Over and over again, leftist media create a narrative they want to be true, report it as actually true and hope their reporting will make it true. They did that for over three years with the Russian collusion hoax. We now know there was zero basis for that. The House testimony of the Obama principles in that mess shows witness after witness told Adam Schiff's committee they didn’t personally have any evidence of Russian collusion. But everyone on the left just assumed SOMEONE did, so they just all reported there was a “mountain of evidence” being built. Major media all got in line, reported the same thing and social media giants made sure to snuff out legitimate questions by labeling them "fake news".

If Donald Trump is reelected in November, after four years of nonstop attacks and accusations by a viciously hostile majority media, universal condemnation across social media platforms and polling showing Americans virtually unanimous in their hatred for the man and everything he's done or said his entire presidency, it will be the greatest demonstration of the complete disconnect between reality and those who completely control sources of information.

We cannot go back to the pre-internet or pre-cell phone days, but we can implement safeguards to assure that information, debate and discussion in our digital world is not entirely controlled by one side of our political spectrum.

Thursday, August 6, 2020

L.A., Detroit Democrats Weaponize Utility Companies in Opposite Ways

Photo: Time
Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti's order this week to cut off water and electric service to homes where people are suspected of violating his coronavirus rules is the exact opposite of how Democrats are handling matters elsewhere in America.

In an effort to battle "large house parties" and only "egregious" cases, the mayor and LA city council have authorized shutting off utilities for the purpose of stopping the spread of coronavirus. Now, obviously, we all know this has little or nothing to do with fears about spreading COVID-19. To begin with, Garcetti and Democrats have specifically exempted protests (what those of us in the rest of America call "rioting") from coronavirus restrictions. The virus doesn't know the difference between a crowd of sweaty, shirtless young people at a house party and a crowd of sweaty, shirtless young people throwing Molotov cocktails at police or into a liquor store. Also, from everything we know about this virus, the least vulnerable demographic is young people, with virtually a 100% recovery rate and extremely mild symptoms. The extraordinary measure of using city utilities as a weapon to punish those disobeying orders, or perhaps a reward for being obedient, is about something else.

Just as with the lockdown orders that put millions of Americans on house arrest with no due process, and the economic shutdown orders cheered by liberals, LA's weaponization of public utilities is simply about cracking that door. Establishing the precedent, to be expanded later. Just as the lockdowns and shutdowns were sold as an emergency measure that was only needed for a few days. Remember "We only have 14 days to flatten the curve!"? We're now in the fifth month, and the left hasn't run out of ideas for why various coronavirus restrictions need to stay in place or be increased or re-introduced after having been lifted. These measures would never have happened to begin with if Americans were told they'd drag on for months, be used for political gamesmanship and possibly be permanent or semi-permanent. Once the precedent was established, the left was off and running and they've used coronavirus for maximum political gain.

But there's another situation in a Democrat-run city across America that shows liberals are using public utilities as a creative political tool.

When Detroit was in bankruptcy and financial managers were sent in to sort out the shocking mismanagement, it was discovered the city's water utility had $90 MILLION in unpaid water bills from about 19,000 accounts. The water company was essentially operating on the honor system, since the utility wouldn't do anything if a resident or company didn't pay their water bill. This same (mis)management technique for utilities is why the electrical grid is collapsing in South Africa. A nation formerly on the cutting edge of nuclear energy, where nuclear reactors once supplied clean, plentiful, reliable power to the country's homes and economy, is now barely able to operate old, inefficient coal-fired power plants and suffers from rolling blackouts.

When the bankruptcy managers sought to collect that money and enforce such collection by shutting off service to delinquent accounts, Democrats went crazy. They protested, they screamed, they petitioned the bankruptcy judge to stop the shutoffs. They came up with the slogan "water is a human right!", which is basically what they say about anything they want nowadays, but want someone else to pay for. College, abortions...basically anytime they want something for free. Anyway, it was the same here. 19,000 homes, apartments and businesses hadn't been paying their water bill, but it was portrayed as the most sickening crime against humanity if there were consequences for ignoring it. The left even begged the United Nations to send in troops to stop the city from requiring a payment plan or any other way of collecting the bill. The UN didn't send troops, but they did huff and puff and denounce the bankruptcy people for "violating human rights" and who-knows-what else. Again, we're talking about a water bill here. The left, who always finagles the language to sound more intense, re-cast the unpaid water bill thing as "denying access to water". Which, like every other time they re-purpose language, is ridiculous and intentionally created for the shock value. Like "assault weapon", it only works on stupid people. but that's all they need to convince. People who don't really think about what they hear. To people like that, the new phrasing made it sound like the federal bankruptcy judge was authorizing accountants to restrain starving people in those old-timey stocks in the public square and not give them anything to drink while people throw tomatoes at them.

Eventually, the finance guys kinda caved a little and they had a moratorium and an amnesty period for people to make some arrangements to get caught up. Basically, it was the gentlest possible way to try to collect an astronomical sum of money. And it was contested at every turn by Democrats, who claimed it was inhumane and violated human rights and international laws and standards of human decency and intergalactic treaties and anything else they could think up. The bottom line was nobody but the worst kind of monstrous human garbage would ever even suggest thinking about shutting off the water to someone's home or business. Never. It was beyond the pale.

Now we have liberal Democrats in another American city shutting off water to homes or businesses where 
the resident is paying the bill, but they're disobeying a Democrat political order.
In the context of COVID-19, it should be pointed out Detroit used that as an excuse during this current pandemic to halt the water shutoffs, claiming they were making the pandemic worse. So, Democrats in Detroit and Los Angeles should try to get on the same page.

Now that liberals have a precedent for cutting off services to homes for political reasons, the process will expand. Just like the shutdowns and lockdowns that were only supposed to be for 14 days have turned into anything and everything leftists want to do to us for as long as they want to do it to us, shutting off utilities is sure to expand. The mayor and LA Democrats say it's only for "egregious" cases and "large" house parties, but we all know these vague terms will quickly become anything and everything Democrats need to solidify their political power. 

Liberals using utility companies as a weapon is just a continuation of the cancel culture they've created on social media and in corporate America. Any opinion differing from the social justice approved message of the day can get you banned from Facebook or twitter, or could even get your family fired from their jobs. In 2018 I wrote in a national column at WND about the left stomping out political opposition by using institutions to cut off access to society. I made the comparison to utilities cutting off service to customers' homes for disagreeing with an approved political orthodoxy. That fictional example has become reality.