Harsh Reality

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Iowa Postmortem. As The Circus Moves On To New Hampshire.

This is a transcript of the Harsh Reality podcast posted on February 3rd, 2016. You can find it here.

Well, hello again everyone and welcome to another addition of the Harsh Reality! I'm Sean Harshey. Your host for the insanity. Ready to roll?

I've been overwhelmed with email messages and private messages on social media about my thoughts on the Iowa caucus results and what what it all means going forward.

First, my congratulations to Ted Cruz. He's conducted his campaign the right way. He's stayed almost entirely positive, and saving his negative comments for Hillary & Obama. He's also done a good job of keeping touch with his base and expanding his base into some unexpected areas. He had an unexpected challenge on his right from Trump, but it hasn't seemed to do any lasting damage yet. Cruz has built a formidable machine and I'll go over my predictions here in just a minute regarding where I think this thing goes next. I'll also talk about Hillary's "win" (I'm making quotation marks with my fingers here) in Iowa and where I think her campaign is headed.

I already touched on Cruz. And I think this is a good time to point out that all this talk of him cheating by Trump and Carson doesn't reflect well on them. Iowa is over, it wasn't really close. If anyone cheated, it was Hillary. But nobody wants to hear bitching about something that's over. New Hampshire is up next and it's time to move on.

In case you didn't know the whole rundown here it is:

1. Cruz with 51,000+;
2. Trump not a distant 2nd, but far enough back at 45,000+;
3. Rubio with a solid 3rd place finish about 2,500 or so behind Trump;
4. Carson with a surprisingly strong 17,000+ votes. I think he did really well speaking at the caucuses;
5. Rand Paul also showing stronger in the actual voting than he has been in the polls with about 8,500 votes;
6. Jeb Bush was the last one to claim a delegate with a pathetic 5,200-some votes. Which, by the way, Jeb and his establishment buds spent a fortune on Iowa and I saw a story that did the math and it was something like $2,500 PER VOTE that he spent. I'll try to find the link and have that posted over at the blog when this goes live with the transcript there. Again, you can find that at SeanHarshey.blogspot.com.

The rest of the candidates didn't get any delegates and really are just taking up space at this point. As of right now, Rand Paul just announced about an hour or so ago that he's dropping out of the race and going to focus his attention on his Senate campaign. As I've pointed out before, I love that he, Rubio & Cruz are all first-term Senators and that Trump, Carson & Fiorina have never held political office before. I think it's a fantastic contrast that 6 - SIX - of the top Republicans have very little political experience among them as opposed to the two angry, bitter old white people who've been wrecking the economy and destroying America for the past QUARTER CENTURY in Washington, D.C. that the Democrats are trying to shove up America's collective asses as the solution to all the problems that they themselves have been creating in Washington for longer than the lifetime of a lot of voters. But that's a discussion for another podcast and I'm not the only one who's pointing this out. I just think I do it really well. Ha!
I got a message on social media, which, if you'd like to follow me or shoot me a message, you can do that on Facebook. It's just 'Sean Harshey' as my news personality page. I'm also on Twitter @SeanHarshey or you can follow me on SoundCloud, where again it's just 'Sean Harshey'. Or my blog is at SeanHarshey.blogspot.com as I mentioned. You can private message me on any of these platforms and I'd love to have you in the audience. But a guy messaged me and said "Trump is done. After this, the air is gone from his campaign and he gets out." I got this message about several candidates, by the way. But here's what I said to him:

It's a possibility that Trump lost some of his mystique here. But I think Trump is more tenacious than the average guy, though. So far, he's shown that he won't back down from anything or anyone. I've been surprised and fascinated by him since he announced. We'll see how he handles coming in 2nd and if he can get a bounce out of winning New Hampshire, which he should, and headed into Super Tuesday. New Hampshire is Trump land, but Super Tuesday should belong to Ted Cruz. He's strong across the South and we'll see if Trump can keep it close down there. Rubio's the wild card in all this. He can win Florida, but something's going to have to happen in the big picture for him to overtake Trump & Cruz for the nomination. Either way, Rubio's on the ticket. As the nominee or the VP. I think that's the only lock on the GOP side.

I didn't like the way Trump seems to have been kinda pouty about his second place showing. I honestly think that was not a bad result, considering he's raising no money whatsoever and had no organization in the state. And I think he's not doing himself a favor by getting into the blame game about Ted Cruz being a cheater. That's nonsense and I think beneath him. That's the sort or bullshit the Democrats constantly pull when they lose. Remember 1980? I had to listen to liberal idiots all through college tell me that Reagan only beat Jimmy Carter (demolishing him in 49 states, by the way) because of the October Surprise. The big conspiracy theory that turned out to be just as big a made-up story as it sounded. It couldn't possibly be that Carter was a shitty president and people didn't want any more of his so-called leadership. Carter ought to send a "thank You card to Barack Obama every day for ensuring that Jimmy's no longer considered the worst President in American history. But I digress. So Reagan supposedly only won because he cheated. Then in 1988 Bush only won because he was a cheating racist who ran a racist Willy Horton TV ad. That only told the truth about Mike Dukakis. But that doesn't matter. It was cheating! And Dukakis would've won if it wasn't for that racist chanting! (They say.) And does anyone remember 2000? The meme is still pushed that George Bush only won Florida and thus the Presidency because the Supreme Court let him cheat and didn't count everyone's votes for Al Gore. Which is, in fact, false. Every single one of the media's counts in the years after that election all showed Bush winning Florida no matter how many ways the votes were counted. Fact. And then in 2004 Bush supposedly only won because of some Swift Boat cheating scandal. It's just sad. And Trump shouldn't join in the stupidity of claiming Republican winners cheated. 

There actually is a story that I think is kind of a missed story in all this. Trump finished a solid 2nd in a big primary with no fundraising. It's remarkable, actually. And he's a solid front-runner for the GOP nomination on a self-funded campaign. I respect that. He's the only guy in either party without his hand out to donors and he's not going to owe any lobbyists anything. I wish more people would pay that fact the respect it's due. Trump had a good performance in Iowa despite all these self-imposed handicaps and I think he's going to do well going forward. But there have already been several crazy twists and turns in this election cycle, so we'll see.

Turning to the geriatric section of the candidate aisle we had the Democrats in a barn burner in Iowa. Bernie Sanders, the 74 year old Bolshevik who's been parked on Capitol Hill for 26 years and an elected politician for 35 or 40 years versus Hillary Clinton who looks like she's 90 and has been in Washington, D.C. in one political capacity or another for about the past quarter century. And they both are insisting that they are the one that voters should send to Washington to, uh...clean up the mess that they had no hand in creating while they've been in control of things since 1990 or so. So, which is it, Bernie & Hillary supporters? Is your candidate responsible for the condition that America is in right now? Or is your candidate so shockingly ineffective at governing that they had nothing to do with the disaster that's happened on their watch? Which is it? And exactly who in their right mind would send anyone back to do even more of the damage we have now. Just funnin'. But seriously.

I thought it was hilarious that Bernie Sanders and his Marxist followers got the full-on Clinton-Obama election treatment. In case you hadn't heard, Bernie got cheated out of the Iowa caucus win on 6 magical coin tosses last night that all went for Hillary. The Clinton/obama election machine is a mean one. I wonder, though, if that sort of obvious cheating - I mean, seriously! Sanders won the caucuses on the tallied votes, but 6 caucuses needed to flip a coin to determine the winner. And Hillary won all six coin tosses?!? What the hell? Anyway, I wonder if that may energize Sanders supporters and disgust some of the Hillary voters in other states. Of course, if Hillary voters aren't already disgusted, it's hard to see how this would make any difference. But I still think it's funny that Sanders' voters got a front-row view of her highness shoving one up their asses.

That's all I've got time for. I appreciate your listening. If you'd like to check out a transcript of this podcast, you can find it over at the Harsh Reality blog, which is at SeanHarshey.blogspot.com. Or you can follow me on Facebook at 'Sean Harshey' or on Twitter @SeanHarshey. Have a great day, everyone! I'm Sean Harshey and this is the Harsh Reality.

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